Ensemble calibration with Dask
Adjusting forecast bias and spread with Dask, using synthetic ensembles.
What I did
I built a synthetic-data demo that uses Dask arrays to adjust forecast bias and spread.
Result: The repository and demo show the processing steps and calibration results.
Tools
- Python
- Dask
- Array processing
- Ensemble calibration
These synthetic tests do not demonstrate production throughput, real forecast accuracy, or a deployed distributed system.
Project gallery
Synthetic demonstration figures; these do not show field performance. 3 images. Select an image to view it full size.
Technical details
Independent portfolio demonstration
A group of forecasts may be consistently biased or show too much or too little variation.
- Store synthetic ensemble forecasts in Dask arrays.
- Apply rolling corrections to bias and spread.
- Check the results with CRPS scores and rank histograms.